ACME reports steady subscription growth and updates annual margin outlook
Review revenue growth, margin guidance, bookings, cash flow, and any change to annual assumptions.
Inputs: growth · margin · FCFACME · NASDAQ · USD · Application Software
Observed market price compared with conditional scenario values.
Base gap: +23% · The modeled difference depends most on operating margin, the exit multiple, and durable revenue growth. These are scenarios, not forecasts or recommendations.
Annual results, changes, and multi-year context.
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | TTM | 5Y avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,420 | 3,650 | 3,890 | 4,130 | 4,510 | 4,800 | +7.0% |
| Revenue growth | — | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% |
| Operating income | 349 | 387 | 432 | 475 | 582 | 629 | +12.5% |
| Operating margin | 10.2% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 11.6% |
| Free cash flow | 301 | 326 | 310 | 381 | 365 | 420 | +6.9% |
| Shares outstanding | 263 | 259 | 255 | 251 | 246 | 248 | −1.2% |
More of the evidence that supports—or challenges—the valuation assumptions.
ROIC, cash conversion, stock compensation, and segment measures require exact definitions, reconciliation rules, source dates, and provider rights. Production calculations should expose those definitions rather than treating labels from different vendors as automatically comparable.
Relative context—not proof that the market’s peer pricing is correct.
| Company | Revenue growth | Operating margin | EV / Revenue | EV / EBITDA | FCF yield | Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACME | 8.2% | 13.1% | 3.9× | 22.1× | 2.3% | — |
| WorkflowCo | 10.4% | 18.2% | 4.8× | 23.9× | 2.8% | Good |
| DataSuite | 6.9% | 21.5% | 4.1× | 19.0× | 3.5% | Moderate |
| CloudWorks | 12.1% | 9.4% | 5.2× | 31.7× | 1.6% | Moderate |
| Peer median | 9.1% | 17.2% | 4.7× | 23.9× | 2.8% | — |
Compare business model, customer type, recurring revenue, growth, margins, capital intensity, geography, size, and accounting. A familiar ticker is not automatically a suitable peer, and relative valuation can repeat market-wide mispricing.
Headlines with possible valuation relevance kept separate from verified company evidence.
Review revenue growth, margin guidance, bookings, cash flow, and any change to annual assumptions.
Inputs: growth · margin · FCFPotential relevance depends on contract size, implementation cost, timing, and customer commitments.
Inputs: international growth · reinvestmentCheck potential dilution, vesting terms, share count, and whether buybacks merely offset issuance.
Inputs: dilution · per-share valueCould affect required returns and valuation multiples, but does not establish why ACME moved today.
Inputs: required return · exit multipleCompare the broad report with ACME’s retention, pipeline, bookings, and management commentary.
Inputs: growth · sales efficiencyMay affect reported growth, costs, and overseas demand; evaluate ACME’s actual geographic exposure.
Inputs: revenue · margins · FXEditable inputs with evidence kept beside the valuation.
| Input | Bear | Base | Bull | Historical / evidence context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 5Y average 7.4% · TTM 8.2% | |||
| Operating margin | TTM 13.1% · peer median 17.2% | |||
| FCF margin | 5Y range 7.8%–10.2% | |||
| Exit multiple | Peer range 14×–23× | |||
| Required return | Higher rate lowers modeled value |
Each production input should expose its definition, historical range, linked source, update date, method eligibility, and the specific effect a higher or lower value has on the model.
External estimates stay visibly separate from Price vs Worth scenarios.
| Measure | Current year | Next year | Longer term | Source role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | Assumption context |
| EPS growth | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.0% | Cross-check only |
| Analyst price estimate | $86 median · $62–$121 range | Separate external opinion | ||